【新唐人2013年05月01日讯】日前，中共喉舌《人民日报》发文，疾呼国际社会“唱空”中国是“偏见”，中国的债务问题被夸大了。不过国内外专家认为，中国的债务问题，除了中共当局已经公布的之外，还有更多看不见的隐形债务，同时，中国的危机也远远不止经济方面，其他如社会危机，生存环境全面破坏等更深层的问题才是根本。
北京《国情内参》首席研究员巩胜利：“中国的空，来自中国的本身，中国有几个问题都是比较严峻的，中国的货币投放量到3月份，已经超过百万（亿）之巨，成为全球之最，是美国的1.5倍，美国的产值是14万亿美元，而中国的产出大概只有6万亿美元左右，产出效率这么低，中国的房地产是中国的第一大产业。”
北京《国情内参》期刊首席研究员巩胜利还指出，中国的国有企业、银行资本和地方债务的问题都非常严重，而中国的人治体制还造成了很多隐形债务，地方债隐型的黑洞就像地雷阵随时都可能引爆。
巩胜利：“特别是国有资本，花的钱是国家的，没有任何人来负责任，前一届花了拍拍屁股走了，后一届接着花，这样的黑洞是很吓人的。”
巩胜利表示，西方国家的债务透明度高，不只是两院明白，民众也都盯着。而美国“南卡罗莱纳大学”艾肯商学院教授谢田认为，中国的债务问题还不是最大的问题。
美国南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院教授谢田：“中国的问题还不在于简简单单的一个负债率过高的问题，还体现在通货膨胀的问题、腐败的问题和经济下滑，出口减低，民怨上升，中国人的基本的生存环境完全被破坏掉，这样一个全社会的、经济、政治全面的危机，这个才是最大的危机。”
报导还说，唱空中国的一方只看到中国地方政府的巨额负债，但没有看到这些负债是源于投资，投资一方面形成了大量资产，另一方面可以取得巨大的现金流量。
谢田：“这个基本上是站不住脚的，首先形成的大量的资产是公共设施基础建设投资，这些资产很多是浪费，并不是真正的资产，优良的资产，比如花了很多钱建高铁，它那个票价太高没有人坐，它的现金流量和收回量也不够，更关键的一点，很多投资被中共的官员层层贪污。”
中共喉舌媒体文章认为，中国地方政府的负债，不同于欧洲国家那样——超前消费。
谢田指出，西方政府的债务，很多是花在养老金、退休金、劳保等公共支出上，和中共被贪官侵吞及花在面子工程上有根本的区别。
谢田：“首先如果中共政府对自己有信心的话，他根本不需要为唱空的人去担心，因为它如果经济真的没问题，可以很容易地走过来的话，那那些唱空的人会输得一踏糊涂，中共政府就是没有信心才开始出来辩解。”
文章声称，不仅中国，在整个东亚特别是东北亚，公司部门高负债率都是经济体发展的共同显着特征。
巩胜利：“美国和欧洲、包括日本，都是宽松货币发展起来的，中国这个宽松货币一放就乱，一乱就收，一收就死，中国现在的体制政策基本上还是人治，包括银行的债务，包括国债，特别是地方债。”
巩胜利认为，如今中国的主要产业——房地产，既不是商品也不是“市场”，中国的房地产问题，比2008年引发全球金融海啸的“房地美、房利美”更危险。
采访编辑/刘惠 后制/李智远
Experts: “China is Broke” Claim, is Not Groundless
A few days ago, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
mouthpiece People’s Daily published an article,
stating that the international community’s
“China is Broke” claim is prejudicial, and that China’s debt problems have been exaggerated.
However, experts in and outside of China estimate,
in addition to the debts the CCP have announced, China has more invisible debts.
Moreover, China’s crisis goes far beyond economic issues.
Deeper issues such as social meltdown and overall
living environmental destruction are fundamental.
People’s Daily wrote that the international capital market
set off a wave of rumors that China is Bankrupt.
Large investment banks, well-known investment
businesses and credit rating agencies all participated.
Since mid-March, JP Morgan released the first report
proposing a reduction of Chinese stock.
Goldman Sachs, UBS and a number of investment banks
all stated that the A Stock Market is going broke.
In April, international rating agency Fitch and Moody’s
downgraded China’s sovereign credit rating.
The article thinks these are all prejudices.
Beijing’s Internal Reference chief researcher Gong Shengli:
“China’s being empty bankrupt is caused by China. There are several severe issues.
The amount of money invested in China in March
surpassed a hundred trillion yuan, the highest in the world.
It is 1.5 times of the U.S.
The output value of the U.S. is $14 trillion.
China’s output value is probably only about $6 trillion.
So output efficiency is very low. Real estate is China’s largest industry.”
Gong Shengli also pointed out that
there are seriously Capital and Debt issues in
China’s state-owned enterprises and banks.
China’s governmental system also caused lots of
hidden debt. Local debt is like a minefield that could explode at any time.
Gong Shengli: “In particular for state-owned capital,
the money spent belongs to the nation. But no one is accountable.
The former leaders spent the money and left.
This kind of black hole is very scary.”
Gong Shengli stated that debt is transparent in
western countries, not only monitored by Congress, but also by the public.
Professor Xie Tian of University of South Carolina
Aiken School of Business thinks that debt is not China’s biggest problem.
Xie Tian: “China’s problem is not only the high debt ratio.
It is reflected in inflation, corruption, economic downturn,
exports reduction, the rise of people’s grievances, and
complete destruction of Chinese people’s living environment.
The greatest crisis is the comprehensive social,
economic, and political crisis.”
The report also states that those making the “China is Bust”
claim only see local Chinese government’s debt,
but did not realize that the debt is caused
by large scale investment.
Investment will result in a large amount of asset
development as well as a large amount of cash returns.
Xie Tian: “This is groundless. The so called
assets are investments in public facilities.
Many of these assets are wasteful,
or not good economic asset.
For example, lots of money was spent on building the
high-speed rail, but no one takes it due to its high fare.
Its cash flow and returns are insufficient.
A more critical issue is that a lot of investment money
was creamed off by corrupt CCP officials.”
The article by the CCP mouthpiece states that
debts of China’s local governments are different
from excessive consumption of Europe and U.S.
Xie Tian points out the western government debt
is mainly spent on the public,
such as social security, pension, and labor protection.
It is fundamentally different from debt caused by
corruption and face-saving projects.
Xie Tian: “If the CCP government is confident about itself,
it does not need to worry about what others say.
Because, if its economy really has no problems, soon
those who made the “China is Bankrupt” claim will lose.
The CCP argues about because it is not confident.”
The article states that not only China, but in East Asia,
especially Northeast Asia, the high debt ratio of companies
are common features of economic development.
Gong Shengli: “U.S., Europe, including Japan
all developed on loose monetary policy.
If China adopted a loose monetary policy, it would
result in chaos, followed by tight control and collapse.
China is still under the system of rule by man, including
bank debt, government bonds and local government debt.”
Gong Shengli thinks China’s current key business –
real estate is neither a product nor a market.
China’s real estate market is more dangerous than
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the 2008 financial crisis.
